Reverse Engineering

Reverse Engineering

Black boxes.  They are, at their core, the basis for modelling any unknown system.  These boxes take inputs and produce outputs.  Being able to figure out what’s inside without being able to open one up is the goal of reverse engineering.  Poker players are black boxes.  They get inputs (cards, the board, other players bets) and produce outputs (actions: call, raise, fold).  It’s your job to model each player and predict how they’ll respond to various stimuli.

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I was invited to a tournament this past Labor Day by G-Vegas action junkie, The Mark.  He’s quite a player and frequently plays in games above my live game bankroll limits.  But last night’s tournament was a small buy-in, only $60.  With approval from the Mrs in check, I was off to unknown territory.

Normal G-Vegas home games are populated by working professionals, guys you’d commonly find with families and steady jobs.  My first judgement upon walking into this new game was that things were a bit, shall we say, “different.”  The crowd was a bit rougher, less polished.  The cash game going on was above my limits and big pots were being taken down with a bit of aggressive banter.  I wasn’t 100% sure what I was getting into.  This night would surely be a test of both my confidence in myself and my ability (or lack thereof.)

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The tourney was a $55+5 freezeout with 12 players.  I’ll admit to being a little hesitant about paying juice at a home game.  As the new guy, I just kept those thoughts to myself.  There were 12 players and top 3 would pay from the $660 prize pool.

The Mark and I agreed to exchange 25% of each other’s action.  He had won the previous two times he played here, so I thought that was a reasonable deal.  It was actually more than reasonable.  Any G-Vegas veteran would jump at the chance to share action with the reigning BadBlood Superstars Invitational winner.

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My card protector featuring my online handle got a few looks.  After I told the guys at my first table that I played online (for PLAY MONEY) they asked which sites I played on.  I rattled off a list of about 15 and then shut up.  I wasn’t sure how they were going to use that information, but I quickly found out.

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I’d played only one hand in the first level, AKo.  I flopped a K and took down the pot with a pot-sized continuation bet.  Nothing major.  Soon into level 2, I found AA on the button.  The pot was raised from the BB of 40 to 140 and called once before action got to me.  I said “raise.”  I matched the 140 and made it another 600 to go.  Folded back around to the first raiser, he paused and looked at me.  He was doing his own bit of reverse engineering and wondering what internal workings of my black box would produce such a bet.  He would later tell me that he thought I was on a steal because that’s what all those “internet players” do.

I heard the magical words.  “All-in.”  Folded back to me, I insta-called and showed my rockets.  His TT did not improve and he was crippled.  Reverse engineering is a not an easy task.

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After doubling up, The Mark came in from the other table and told me the sad news that he was the first to bust out.  Wonderful.  Now it’s my job to cash instead of riding his coattails.  Who’da thunk?

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We condensed to one table and I tightened up a bit.  I got aggressive with AQs; my 4xBB raise was called by a short stack.  The flop was J-high and my continuation bet put him all-in.  He called with pocket T’s, but I caught an A on the turn and a Q on the river for good measure.  I eliminated another short-stack when my A4s beat his KJo.  I was probably 2nd in chips at this point with 6 players left.

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During the time when I was folding, I had to pay extra attention to all the players in order for my reverse engineering to be effective in any way.  I did pick up a very reliable tell on the chip leader.  It was actually quite amazing.  Whenever he would raise and verbalize his raise, he had a hand.  When his raises were silent, he was bluffing.  This wasn’t a 50-60% effective tell, it was a 100% effective tell.  Mike Caro would be proud.

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Still 2nd in chips, I found AKo UTG.  My 4xBB wass raised all-in by the shortstack to my left.  Unfortunately for me, the chip leader said “raise.”  The raise was about ¼ of my remaining stack.  It’s for sure a squeeze play, but my read on him was that he had a high pair.  I paused for a bit and went over my options.  If he has AA or KK and I hit my flop, I’m in trouble.  If I miss the flop, I’m in trouble; especially if I consider that the shortstack has one of my outs.  In the end, I just didn’t want to play a big pot with the chip leader at this time.  I folded.  In hindsight it was the correct move.  The shortstack had KQ and the chip leader had TT.  The TT would have held up against me.  I’ll probably analyze that hand further, because it was very situational considering the stack sizes.  In the end, I still had plenty of chips.

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We finally got down to three players, but I was shortstacked.  Here’s where a little knowledge can go a long way.  Enter Mr. Dan Harrington’s fine work.  Knowing your M-ratio and the other players ratios is powerful ammunition.  There were so many bad plays by shortstacks earlier (simply calling the BB for 1/3rd of their chips and folding post flop), I can guarantee you that nobody at that table has ever broken the binding of Harrington on Hold ‘em.

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In one of the last key hands of the tourney, I was in the SB with pocket A’s.  The button folded and I made the command decision that this hand would either make me or break me.  I wasn’t going all-in preflop and simply winning the BB.  I wanted value for my hand, and if I slow played it into a loser so be it.  I’m playing for first.

I limped and the chip leader with the tell checked.  The flop was K-high.  I checked again.  Chip-leader checked too.  The turn was another K.  I checked.  The chip-leader silently pushed in 1500 chips.  Silently.  Very qwietly….as if he’s hunting wabbits.  I pushed all-in and as expected, the chip-leader folded.  I was willing to give a free card on the turn, but not the river.  The extra 1500 in chips put me at near average with three left.

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In the end, with the blinds 500/1000 and 100 antes, we agreed to a chop.  The chip-leader negotiated $240 for him and $210 for myself and the other player (a nicely shaped female who could play - but that’s neither here nor there.)  It was past midnight and the action turned into a push-fest.  I was extremely content to chop since I was the shortest stack although not by much.

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As the new guy at the table, I had to do a bunch of player profiling.  Some of it was effective (chip leader and his tell), some of it was not.  I did get my hand caught in the cookie jar when I mis-read someone horribly wrong.  But that happens.

Reverse engineering the other players is extremely important, but don’t forget that the other players are going to be trying to reverse engineer your little poker playing decision-making engine.  Not everyone’s black box has the same capacity.  Some people can only fit one playing style inside.  Some people have multiple systems working to confuse anyone trying to decipher them.  That’s why changing gears and mixing up your play is paramount to success.  What’s in your black box?