Morbid Tales

The game I insist on continuing to play is all about timing and reads.  One thing that I’ve noticed during this down swing is that my reads on other players is actually improving.  But because my timing is shot to hell, sometimes being right about your opponent’s holding doesn’t mean Bo Diddly.

Some basic reads gone right, but hands gone wrong.

Online, $200NL 6-max.  Mid position with AJ, I raise to $8 and get a single caller from the blinds.  The flop is KJJ, two diamonds.  Blind checks, and I bet $12.  Why bet?  Because of the diamonds and because nobody bets flops they hit huge right?  I get min-raised to $24.  Ok, opponent has a J, and if it’s a naked J, I have him out kicked.  I call.  Turn brings a 3rd diamond and the blind checks.  My read continues to be a naked J because if you have a full house and a flush draw hits, many players bet.  I know I would.  I bet half his stack, he smooth calls.  River is a 4th diamond.  My Ace is not a diamond.  Blind checks as do I.  He shows TJ for the win.  T of diamonds.  Right read, wrong results.

Online, $200NL 6-max.  In early position, I call a raise in a multi-way pot from the BB with 78h.  The flop is 9TJ rainbow.  I’m first to act and bet the pot, ass-end and all.  I’m raised all-in by the initial raiser.  Folded back to me, I think for a split second about KQ.  Nah.  I call.  He flips his set of T’s.  Board comes runner KQ for the split pot.  I probably should be happy to get my money back.

Online, $200NL 6-max.  I limp in late position with K9s.  The flop is all spades, T82.  A blind fires out $5, and a huge stack calls.  The player to my right pushes all-in.  Pushes, OK?  Pushes.  My read is the naked Ace of spades.  I just call.  Just call.  If you’re an early position player and see someone push and simply get called, does that not scream monster?  Does it not scream made hand?  Apparently not.  The initial bettor folds, but the big stack calls.  In the final analysis, my read was fucking perfect.  Pusher did have the naked Ace of spades.  The big stack?  Pocket Jacks with the Jack of spades.  Oh yeah, the runner, runner T’s gave him a boat.  I folded to his river bet.  You could argue the fact that I could have raised the pusher’s push.  Indeed I could have.  But if the cards were face up, how would you play the hand?

The Big Game, G-Vegas, $200NL, 8-players.  One caller of the live straddle to $4 and I raise to $16 with 88.  Button calls, so does limper.  Flop is J62.  Checked to me, I bet $25.  Button folds, limper calls.  Turn is a 9, bringing a second diamond to the board.  Limper fires out $40 and I go into the tank.  I know the player is putting me on overcards and the accompanying standard continuation bet.  Two draws just hit the board and this is the first sign of aggression from the player to my right.  The limp call and check call scream low pocket pair to me.  But which one?  6’s for a set?  I don’t think so.  7’s?  5’s?  Certainly not 8’s because I have them.  Finally I call.

But here’s the deal.  Calling was WRONG.  Raising was right.  If I’m so damn confident in my read, why do I not raise?  Because the self-doubt is creeping and growing.  River is a 7 of diamonds completing every draw known to man.  I make a crying call on the river only to be shown pocket 7’s.  Ugh.  Read is right, play is wrong, and the river is very wrong.

****

It seems as though I’m winning a bunch of small pots, but losing that one big pot we all play for during a session.  I’m on the wrong side of 1st nuts vs. 2nd nuts.  I’m on the wrong side of KK vs. AQ on a KJT flop.  Last night I played about 300 hands and after about 250 of them, I was down half a buy-in because I had lost the only big hand I was involved in.  One player was berating me, claiming me to be a horrible player and every one on Full Tilt knew it.  I agreed with him and he quieted down.  Mercifully, I made a miraculous come back to post a winning session and went to bed.

I’m embarrassed to say that I hadn’t been saving my hand histories over the course of the year.  So all the data from the thousands of hands of frustration is unavailable.  I rectified the situation and will be able to do some proper analysis soon as recommended by CC.  And again, thanks to the readers like Hoy and Whaaa? who offer words of encouragement.  I’ll rebound, but changing directions with as much negative inertia I have right now is difficult.

****

At least the cards can’t take away my gunzzzzzzzzz.