Generally Correct, Specifically Wrong

As you've probably heard a million times before, poker is a game of the long term. In theory, you are to make decisions where on average those decisions will yield a profit. Positive expected value. Key word, expected.

Last night at the GucciRick game, I made a fold that I thought was entirely proper. Here's how it went down.

I was in the big blind and I held pocket Jacks. UTG+1, known in these circles as Dean, Dean the Drawing Machine, made a standard opening raise. We can give him credit for a variety of hands, a big Ace, pocket pairs 7 and above. I'm sure you know the drill.

A couple of folds later, CurrentFrank, formerly known as NewFrank, and not to be confused with FranktheTank, made a re-raise. It was a significant re-raise, almost 5x the raise amount put in by Dean. When it folded to me, I simply folded my hand. I showed my fold to one of the many dentists in the game seated to my right and his eyes grew a bit wide at my action. I whispered to him that I knew I was beat, CurrentFrank had me destroyed.

The flop came down T-high rainbow. Dean checked, and as I suspected, CurrentFrank pushed all in. I stood up, I was so confident in my fold that I pretty much made a fool of myself and declared myself King of Big Laydowns. Or some other such idiocy.

Meanwhile, Dean pondered a call.

"You have Queens? Kings?" A-ha, I thought to myself, I wasn't the only one who made such a read. "I call," Dean finally said and tabled his ATo. I was ready for CurrentFrank to flip up his monster.

Instead, he did the unthinkable. He mucked his hand. The turn brought a Queen, the river a blank and Dean raked in a huge pot.

My Jacks would have been good.

Later, I'd say I was fine with the laydown. In fact, I still am. I was up against potentially two opponents, out of position, and post-flop I could only beat AT and a bluff. It just so happened that Dean and Frank actually had those exact two hands making me perfectly incorrect for that one hand.

But correct in the long run? I still think so.