Monday, November 29, 2010

We Have a Winner (and a Loser)

Congratulations to StB for being the first ELIGIBLE person to correctly guess that TheMark's brother, Gucci Rick, will be joining our team for the LLL3 challenge at the WPBT Winter gathering in 12 short days. He'll be receiving his choice of either Lost Vegas or Cowboys Full.

I just recently completed a full week off from work thanks to my company's 2010 holiday schedule re-work that gave us 5 days off for Thanksgiving. It was at this time that I bumped up my online PLO stakes a notch and gave the $100 buy-in games another shot. I'd held off from playing those stakes since my late July debacle, where apparently not coincidentally, I was on vacation for a full week.

There must be something to time off and my ability to focus properly. Got my ass handed to me again. Some portion of the losses could be attributed to the standard PLO, holy shit really?, type of suckouts. But some is also due to my getting a bit frustrated at those losses. That frustration is more easily damped at $25 buy-in losses and that's where I need to improve.

And hey, just for the fun of it, here's a hand for you PLO folks if you care to disect it:

6-handed, $100 effective stacks, I'm in the cutoff. I open raise to $3.50 with 99TJ, button calls, big blind calls. Flop is 79J, 2 diamonds. Big blind checks, I c-bet to $8 and only the big blind calls. Diamond draw is my first assessment, I feel 8T has to raise with the flush draw out there. Turn is an off-suit 6, big blind checks once again. I believe I incorrectly check the turn here because there really is no other hand than a diamond draw that checks from the big blind. Even a hand like 5678 would bet I think. Key word, I think. The river pairs the 6 and the big blind leads for $25. My thought is to now raise. I beat 77, 67, T8 (badly played) and have a J-blocker to JJ. Besides the badly checked turn, am I so far off of my PLO game that raising the river bet is incorrect? Thoughts welcome.

When it comes down to WPBT time, I'll definitely be looking for a live PLO game. I haven't been to a casino since this past June, and even with the proliferation of some of the best online casinos, I still have the most fun at a live PLO table. I'll be heading to the Venetian in search of a game and hopefully Aria will have one as well.

See you all soon, this work week can't fly by quickly enough.


Grange95 said...

I'm not a PLO expert by any means, but with the J-blocker, you're really hard-pressed not to think you're best here. I think you have to raise the river for value, as a ton of PLO newbs overvalue underboats and will pay you off. If you ran into JJ/66, gawd bless 'em, pay 'em off.

To me, the turn is the more interesting decision. I think I might raise, but I can't say that a check was a bad decision. Care to discuss that decision a bit more?

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Very interesting hand -- PLO is great for discussion because I think there are a lot of options and frankly it is a lot harder to determine the "right" or "most +EV" play in any given situation than in holdem as a result.

I like the c-bet on the flop, and since only one player is in there, I would not worry too much about the straight.

I actually like the check on the turn, as the turn 6 created another straight possibility for someone holding an 8 in their hand, which I would in general be as likely to put someone on after calling you on the flop as I would a flush draw, either of which is a decent possibility. And I know you don't think someone checks the turn if they're holding the made straight, but I find -- in particular at the $100 level -- that players do not think at that level all that much and I would assume I could easily be beat by a straight at this point in the hand. It's not that much money, it's not a huge pot right now, I would be inclined to check behind myself and see if the river either brings me my boat and/or if my opponent bets out, and whether the bet seems like a weak lead or rather the ever-popular "I tried to check-raise you on the turn but I missed by chance to bet so now I'm going to bet big on the river to try to make up for my missed bet on the turn" kind of bet that donx just love to do all the time.

Now when this guy bets out on the river, and what sounds like basically a full-pot bet, I've got the alarm bells going off in my head that he thinks he missed his opporuntiy to check-raise the turn. For all the reasons you and Grange stated in your post and his comment, I would obviously not fold here. Maybe I'm playing too conservatively, but I do not typically like to raise the river in PLO with the third nuts (or worse). I've just lost too many pots in inexplicable situations to the first or second nuts. So even though I'm pretty sure I am ahead, I would probably just call here and take whatever I get. I mean, given the way this guy played it, if you're behind to JJ or 66, that would be pretty hard to swallow. But I rarely raise the river in PLO with the third nuts, and I woudl probably do the same here as well. Even as I read this comment I think I sound like a puss, but that's probably the way I would play it.

David Westbay said...

I don't play much PLO, but I would agree with Hoy that raising on the river with less than the first or second nuts is very dangerous, unless you have a solid read on your opponent that he or she would bet with a worse hand than yours.

This player might have started with something like JJQK or 6678, probably with diamonds, and got lucky on the river. Or could have missed their draw and hopes to bluff you out. But I would save the money from the river raise for a better spot, and just call here. Then again, I'm a rank amateur at Omaha, so there you go.

SirFWALGMan said...

I think he has 77 for some reason.. He did not like the turn and he liked the river boating up. He might have quads or JJ but that is slightly unlikely although very possible.. fuck it I say go for broke. LOL.

P.S. I am definitely a break even PLO player.

Unknown said...

Suck less, win more.

Take more shots, you know you're good enough and have the BR to do it. Don't play Rush $100, it ramps
up the variance too high for now.

Get a feel for the regular tables, then move.

On this hand, commit to getting sticky on the turn (or fold) versus being force to make a bad river call, less costly there.

melioris said...

hate to be a wet-blanket here, but I think you made two mistakes in this PLO HH.

1). You have to bet the turn. If villain has a straight and slowplaying, villain would bet the safe turn. I am not concerned about getting c/r here, as it makes the hand incredibly easy to play, so I bet the turn with the hope of folding the passively JJxx and the FD or FD+combo hands.

2). When the river pairs the board and the passive villain donks fully pot into me, I don't raise without top FH or quads. Seriously, what hand is calling a shove here that you beat? Without specific reads, I think this is a clear call. You have the third nuts and the passive villain just got crazy on you when the river paired the board, I don't see this as even close.

I see PLO as a game of equity. Preflop is reduced as the equity differences are diminished, but the flop and turn are all maximizing your value/equity ratio and the river is all about value.