Tuesday, November 16, 2004

Bad Beat Dissection

Just for kicks, I plugged in the first 5 bad beats into some poker evaluation software and came up with the following table:

Me Opp. Board Pot %win EV actual
Ac As 7s 8s 3s Js 4c $ 49.20 0.671 $ 33.00 $ (49.20)
Ks Kc Qs Js 2d 9s Jd $ 43.95 0.769 $ 33.78 $ (43.95)
Ks Kc Qs 7s 4s 8s 6c $ 8.75 0.578 $ 5.06 $ (8.75)
Kc Qs As 9s 7s 5c Qd $ 28.00 0.830 $ 23.25 $ (28.00)
As Jd Kd Ks 2d Ah Jh $ 16.85 0.900 $ 15.17 $ (16.85)

















Totals
$ 110.26 $(146.75)


Interestingly enough, my actual results were over $250 away from my expected results. So finishing the night only down $40 isn't that big of a disaster. I'm looking forward to seeing the other side of that variation in the nights to come.

And thanks SirFWALGMan for the words of enouragement.

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